Examining Carlos Correa’s 2017 STEAMER Projection

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When the 2016 season got underway, Carlos Correa entered the season as the number one player I couldn’t wait to see hit the diamond. He started things off with a bang in his first series in New York, hitting a backside home run in the Houston Astros first win; and then adding a multi-home run game in the series finale.

It seemed there would be no end in sight to Correa’s success and he would exceed our wildest expectations of him after his sterling 2015 Rookie of the Year campaign.

And then Correa was simply a good player, not great and not MVP-level. And that’s okay!

We are here to look at his earliest projection from Steamer on his Fangraphs page.

Carlos Correa 2017 STEAMER Projection:

148 games played, .278 batting average, .811 OPS, 23 home runs, 85 runs, 90 RBI, 14 steals, 4.9 fWAR

If you’re looking for a projection system to say a guy is going to have a true ‘break-out’ performance, don’t ever look for it to be STEAMER.

This has Correa heading on a steady path rather than a sharp incline. We tend to think he’s going to take the next step and perform somewhere in between 2015 and 2016’s numbers, extrapolated over a full season of course rather than a carbon copy of his 2016 season which is what Steamer projects in his age 22 season.

Let’s say Steamer is correct though. If Correa has another season like he did last year, there will be whispers in some circles that he’s simply a good player and the belief will be (already) that he might never reach greatness. And that would be incredibly unfair and incorrect. He’s going to be an unbelievable player through his age 25-30 whatever seasons we would be willing to wager.

Correa is just fine. Look at this projection as confirmation that his already solid statistics are no mirage but the mark of a player growing into his own and establishing himself at the difficult big league level.

You can follow Clint on twitter @Diamondhoggers or visit his home site about baseball, Diamondhoggers.com.




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